On 1st April 2020, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) released a model estimating the progression of Covid-19 within the USA and the total number of deaths likely to be suffered as a result by its population.
The chart below shows how well this projection predicted what has actually happened in the USA.
The USA did not reach the heights of the peak suggested by the model but, now on the down side of the peak, numbers of deaths per day have not fallen anywhere nearly as quickly as projected.
By 14th May the total number of people who had died exceeded the total projected by the model, and as of 9th June, 17,000 people in excess of the projected total have lost their lives and around 750 people per day on average are still dying.